← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Harvard University3.20+7.89vs Predicted
-
2Yale University4.24+3.04vs Predicted
-
3Roger Williams University3.77+3.68vs Predicted
-
4Tufts University3.47+3.56vs Predicted
-
5Northeastern University2.16+7.48vs Predicted
-
6Dartmouth College3.38+1.99vs Predicted
-
7Brown University3.38+0.99vs Predicted
-
8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-0.07vs Predicted
-
9Bowdoin College3.18-0.24vs Predicted
-
10Salve Regina University1.39+5.09vs Predicted
-
11Boston College4.01-5.22vs Predicted
-
12University of Vermont2.70-0.97vs Predicted
-
13McGill University1.43+1.82vs Predicted
-
14Boston University3.42-6.42vs Predicted
-
15Connecticut College2.81-4.85vs Predicted
-
16University of Rhode Island2.76-5.45vs Predicted
-
17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-7.00vs Predicted
-
18Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-5.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.89Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
-
5.04Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
-
6.68Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
-
7.56Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
-
12.48Northeastern University2.160.0%1st Place
-
7.99Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
-
7.99Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
-
7.93Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
-
8.76Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
-
15.09Salve Regina University1.390.0%1st Place
-
5.78Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
-
11.03University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
-
14.82McGill University1.430.0%1st Place
-
7.58Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
-
10.15Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
-
10.55University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
-
10.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
-
12.69Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Nicholas Baird | 13.2% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Scott Barbano | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Peter Christensen | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 10.4% |
| Robert Floyd | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Trevor Long | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Jennifer Killian | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 17.6% | 36.4% |
| Erika Reineke | 12.1% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 3.0% |
| Morgan Sadler | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 20.4% | 30.9% |
| Hannah Polster | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Carter Pemberton | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Brendan Read | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Alexander Bowen | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 9.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.