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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.18+7.81vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.77+4.51vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+5.04vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.20+4.46vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.47+2.39vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.01-0.48vs Predicted
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7Yale University4.24-2.22vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+1.59vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.38-1.25vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.56+1.29vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.70-0.34vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.38-3.90vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.16-0.66vs Predicted
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14Boston University2.97-4.83vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University1.39-0.08vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.81-5.88vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-4.16vs Predicted
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18McGill University1.43-3.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.81Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
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6.51Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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8.04Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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8.46Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.39Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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5.52Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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4.78Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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9.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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7.75Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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11.29University of Rhode Island2.560.0%1st Place
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10.66University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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8.1Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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12.34Northeastern University2.160.0%1st Place
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9.17Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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14.92Salve Regina University1.390.0%1st Place
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10.12Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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12.84Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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14.7McGill University1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McGuire | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Long | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| Scott Barbano | 7.1% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Erika Reineke | 12.3% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 15.5% | 16.5% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Gibbs | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 3.7% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.3% |
| Robert Floyd | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Peter Christensen | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.2% |
| Robby Gearon | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Jennifer Killian | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 18.4% | 33.5% |
| Carter Pemberton | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 2.1% |
| Alexander Bowen | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 11.7% |
| Morgan Sadler | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 19.4% | 29.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.