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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.18+7.74vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.77+4.47vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+6.91vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+3.75vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.70+5.39vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.39+5.71vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.38+0.81vs Predicted
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8Yale University4.24-3.27vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.47-1.64vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.97-0.32vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.71-0.44vs Predicted
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12Boston College4.01-6.21vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.38-5.31vs Predicted
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14Harvard University3.20-5.74vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University1.39-0.11vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island2.56-4.94vs Predicted
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17McGill University1.43-2.06vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.90-4.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.74Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
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6.47Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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9.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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7.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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10.39University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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11.71Northeastern University2.390.0%1st Place
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7.81Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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4.73Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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7.36Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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9.68Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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10.56Connecticut College2.710.0%1st Place
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5.79Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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7.69Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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8.26Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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14.89Salve Regina University1.390.0%1st Place
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11.06University of Rhode Island2.560.0%1st Place
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14.94McGill University1.430.0%1st Place
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13.26Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McGuire | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| Trevor Long | 5.8% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 1.9% |
| John Wehner | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 6.2% |
| Robert Floyd | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Baird | 16.9% | 15.4% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barbano | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Robby Gearon | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Walter Florio | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% |
| Erika Reineke | 12.1% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Jennifer Killian | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 17.2% | 32.7% |
| Matthew Gibbs | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 3.4% |
| Morgan Sadler | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 19.4% | 33.0% |
| Jeffrey Adam | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 16.4% | 13.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.