← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Roger Williams University3.77+5.69vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University3.20+6.90vs Predicted
-
3Dartmouth College3.38+5.14vs Predicted
-
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+3.86vs Predicted
-
5Yale University4.24-0.12vs Predicted
-
6Boston University3.42+1.75vs Predicted
-
7Boston College4.01-1.36vs Predicted
-
8University of Vermont2.70+2.54vs Predicted
-
9Connecticut College2.71+1.58vs Predicted
-
10Brown University3.38-1.81vs Predicted
-
11Bowdoin College3.18-2.17vs Predicted
-
12Northeastern University2.39+0.09vs Predicted
-
13Tufts University3.47-5.52vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-4.45vs Predicted
-
15Salve Regina University1.39+0.01vs Predicted
-
16Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.90-2.40vs Predicted
-
17University of Rhode Island2.76-6.51vs Predicted
-
18McGill University1.43-3.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.69Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
-
8.9Harvard University3.200.0%1st Place
-
8.14Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
-
7.86Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
-
4.88Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
-
7.75Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
-
5.64Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
-
10.54University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
-
10.58Connecticut College2.710.0%1st Place
-
8.19Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
-
8.83Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
-
12.09Northeastern University2.390.0%1st Place
-
7.48Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
-
9.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
-
15.01Salve Regina University1.390.0%1st Place
-
13.6Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.900.0%1st Place
-
10.49University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
-
14.76McGill University1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Bryan | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Robert Floyd | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Trevor Long | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Baird | 17.1% | 15.0% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Polster | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Erika Reineke | 11.8% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% |
| Walter Florio | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Jack McGuire | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| John Wehner | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 7.0% |
| Scott Barbano | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Jennifer Killian | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 19.4% | 33.5% |
| Jeffrey Adam | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 16.3% | 16.5% |
| Brendan Read | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 2.4% |
| Morgan Sadler | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 12.3% | 19.4% | 31.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.