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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.18+7.73vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+5.95vs Predicted
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3Boston College4.01+2.59vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.38+3.65vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.56+5.81vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+3.67vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.79+3.11vs Predicted
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8Yale University4.24-3.23vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.71+1.39vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.70+0.75vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.47-3.47vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.42-4.12vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University1.39+1.73vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-1.59vs Predicted
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15McGill University1.43-0.23vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.20-7.46vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University2.16-4.36vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University3.77-11.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.73Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
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7.95Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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5.59Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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7.65Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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10.81University of Rhode Island2.560.0%1st Place
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9.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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10.11Brown University2.790.0%1st Place
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4.77Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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10.39Connecticut College2.710.0%1st Place
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10.75University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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7.53Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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7.88Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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14.73Salve Regina University1.390.0%1st Place
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12.41Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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14.77McGill University1.430.0%1st Place
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8.54Harvard University3.200.0%1st Place
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12.64Northeastern University2.160.0%1st Place
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6.09Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McGuire | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Trevor Long | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Erika Reineke | 11.5% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Floyd | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Gibbs | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 3.5% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| Sam Alexander | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Nicholas Baird | 17.2% | 15.3% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Walter Florio | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 1.5% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Scott Barbano | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Hannah Polster | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Jennifer Killian | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 12.0% | 16.5% | 33.5% |
| Alexander Bowen | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 9.3% |
| Morgan Sadler | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 17.4% | 32.1% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Peter Christensen | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 12.0% | 10.9% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.