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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.18+7.82vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.47+5.66vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.38+4.97vs Predicted
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4Boston College4.01+1.53vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+2.81vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.56+5.07vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.79+3.13vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.39+3.61vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.81+1.07vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.70+0.77vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University1.39+3.96vs Predicted
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12McGill University1.43+3.08vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.77-6.71vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-4.53vs Predicted
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15Yale University4.24-10.18vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-3.18vs Predicted
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17Boston University3.42-9.23vs Predicted
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18Harvard University3.20-9.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.82Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
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7.66Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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7.97Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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5.53Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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7.81Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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11.07University of Rhode Island2.560.0%1st Place
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10.13Brown University2.790.0%1st Place
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11.61Northeastern University2.390.0%1st Place
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10.07Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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10.77University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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14.96Salve Regina University1.390.0%1st Place
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15.08McGill University1.430.0%1st Place
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6.29Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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9.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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4.82Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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12.82Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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7.77Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.38Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McGuire | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Scott Barbano | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Robert Floyd | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Erika Reineke | 13.1% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Long | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Matthew Gibbs | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 4.3% |
| Sam Alexander | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% |
| John Wehner | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 4.5% |
| Carter Pemberton | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 3.3% |
| Jennifer Killian | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 13.3% | 20.6% | 31.8% |
| Morgan Sadler | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 17.2% | 37.4% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 10.3% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Nicholas Baird | 15.4% | 14.6% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Bowen | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 15.3% | 10.2% |
| Hannah Polster | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.