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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+6.46vs Predicted
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2Eckerd College0.85+9.10vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.59+5.00vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+2.53vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University2.10+1.57vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+2.54vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.44+2.37vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.58+1.24vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.98-2.07vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College0.50+2.39vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.30-2.62vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin0.13+1.60vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.59-2.50vs Predicted
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14Florida State University1.69-6.06vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-3.88vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.89-5.38vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.26-2.04vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.39-10.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.8%1st Place
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11.1Eckerd College0.852.9%1st Place
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8.0Old Dominion University1.597.1%1st Place
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6.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.319.8%1st Place
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6.57Jacksonville University2.1012.0%1st Place
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8.54University of California at Santa Barbara1.675.5%1st Place
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9.37George Washington University1.445.0%1st Place
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9.24University of Pennsylvania1.584.9%1st Place
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6.93Fordham University1.989.2%1st Place
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12.39SUNY Maritime College0.502.5%1st Place
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8.38Webb Institute1.306.3%1st Place
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13.6University of Wisconsin0.131.9%1st Place
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10.5Northeastern University1.593.5%1st Place
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7.94Florida State University1.696.2%1st Place
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11.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.4%1st Place
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10.62Connecticut College0.893.2%1st Place
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14.96University of Michigan-0.261.1%1st Place
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7.76Boston University1.397.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 5.6% |
| Diogo Silva | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Owen Bannasch | 12.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Henry Boeger | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Cole Woodworth | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 10.5% |
| Everett Botwinick | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Nigel Yu | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 18.6% | 19.6% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 4.2% |
| Peter Foley | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% |
| Henry Scholz | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
| Jack Hammett | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 15.4% | 41.5% |
| Noah Robitshek | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.