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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Florida State University1.69+7.16vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+5.04vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.10+3.46vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.59+6.68vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.44+4.42vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+0.77vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+4.01vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College0.89+2.21vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.98-1.95vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara1.67-1.36vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College0.85-0.02vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.50+0.82vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.39-5.14vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.59-6.11vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.30-6.51vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.58-6.87vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.13-3.44vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan-0.26-3.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.16Florida State University1.696.3%1st Place
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7.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.779.9%1st Place
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6.46Jacksonville University2.1010.2%1st Place
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10.68Northeastern University1.594.0%1st Place
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9.42George Washington University1.444.8%1st Place
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6.77Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.319.0%1st Place
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11.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.6%1st Place
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10.21Connecticut College0.894.0%1st Place
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7.05Fordham University1.989.4%1st Place
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8.64University of California at Santa Barbara1.677.0%1st Place
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10.98Eckerd College0.853.1%1st Place
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12.82SUNY Maritime College0.501.9%1st Place
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7.86Boston University1.396.6%1st Place
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7.89Old Dominion University1.596.7%1st Place
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8.49Webb Institute1.305.1%1st Place
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9.13University of Pennsylvania1.585.6%1st Place
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13.56University of Wisconsin0.131.7%1st Place
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14.84University of Michigan-0.261.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Foley | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Owen Bannasch | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.3% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 4.3% |
| Henry Scholz | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 3.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Henry Boeger | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 16.2% | 11.8% |
| Noah Robitshek | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Cole Woodworth | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Nigel Yu | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 15.9% | 22.6% |
| Jack Hammett | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 39.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.