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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.48vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech1.14+11.13vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.42vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.51+2.26vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.49+1.18vs Predicted
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6Hampton University3.02+1.80vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+0.15vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-1.59vs Predicted
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9Cornell University3.14-1.76vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.50-3.84vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology1.76+0.60vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.69-3.17vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.80-4.61vs Predicted
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14Queen's University1.51-1.76vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University2.21-4.46vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech1.14-2.87vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.75-2.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.48U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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13.13Virginia Tech1.140.0%1st Place
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4.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.2%1st Place
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6.26Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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6.18George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.8Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
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7.15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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7.24Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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6.16Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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11.6Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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8.83SUNY Maritime College2.690.0%1st Place
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8.39University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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12.24Queen's University1.510.0%1st Place
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10.54Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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13.13Virginia Tech1.140.0%1st Place
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14.16Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Snow | 11.3% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Preston Senior | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 23.5% | 26.3% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 18.2% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 7.9% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 5.6% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clark Uhl | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Roleke | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 17.7% | 15.8% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Comerford | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Montagnese | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 17.8% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Preston Senior | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 23.5% | 26.3% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 12.4% | 21.2% | 43.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.