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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.74vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+4.16vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.63+2.13vs Predicted
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4George Washington University3.41+1.86vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.81-0.48vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.82+1.92vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+0.84vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.54+0.61vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.14+1.27vs Predicted
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10Hampton University2.26-0.42vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech1.65+0.78vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.44-2.95vs Predicted
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13Fordham University3.25-6.56vs Predicted
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14Queen's University0.88-0.17vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.96-4.27vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech1.65-4.22vs Predicted
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17Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-3.84vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.81-1.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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5.13U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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5.86George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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4.52Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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7.92Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.1%1st Place
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8.61Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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10.27SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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9.58Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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11.78Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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9.05University of Pennsylvania2.440.0%1st Place
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6.44Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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13.83Queen's University0.880.0%1st Place
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10.73Christopher Newport University1.960.0%1st Place
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11.78Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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13.16Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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16.4Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dane Byerly | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 11.9% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 15.8% | 16.0% | 15.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 17.2% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Ava Esquier | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Vos | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 16.1% | 34.3% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Vir Menon | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 17.2% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 19.7% | 22.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Mandelbaum | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 11.3% | 77.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.