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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.73vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.63+3.11vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.81+1.63vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+3.78vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+1.08vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech1.65+5.85vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.41-1.18vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.44+0.96vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.54-0.08vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.14+0.06vs Predicted
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11Hampton University2.26-1.16vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.82-4.27vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.96-2.19vs Predicted
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14Fordham University3.25-7.57vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-1.94vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech1.65-4.15vs Predicted
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17Queen's University0.88-3.17vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.81-1.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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5.11U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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4.63Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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7.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.1%1st Place
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6.08St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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11.85Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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5.82George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.96University of Pennsylvania2.440.0%1st Place
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8.92Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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10.06SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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9.84Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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7.73Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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10.81Christopher Newport University1.960.0%1st Place
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6.43Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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13.06Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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11.85Virginia Tech1.650.0%1st Place
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13.83Queen's University0.880.0%1st Place
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16.37Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 12.9% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 14.2% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dane Byerly | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 17.0% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Esquier | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vir Menon | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 18.2% | 24.3% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 17.0% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Vos | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 12.1% | 17.0% | 30.3% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Mandelbaum | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 11.3% | 76.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.