← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Middlebury College1.50+2.44vs Predicted
-
2McGill University1.31+1.72vs Predicted
-
4McGill University1.39-0.38vs Predicted
-
5Tufts University2.17-2.45vs Predicted
-
6Queen's University1.64-2.71vs Predicted
-
7Brandeis University-0.10-1.29vs Predicted
-
8Amherst College-0.14-2.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.44Middlebury College1.500.2%1st Place
-
3.72McGill University1.310.1%1st Place
-
3.62McGill University1.390.1%1st Place
-
2.55Tufts University2.170.3%1st Place
-
3.29Queen's University1.640.2%1st Place
-
5.71Brandeis University-0.100.0%1st Place
-
5.67Amherst College-0.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 16.7% | 17.5% | 18.5% | 17.6% | 14.9% | 11.3% | 3.5% |
| Charlotte Skinner | 12.5% | 15.1% | 17.9% | 18.2% | 20.3% | 11.0% | 5.0% |
| Wesley Yland | 14.3% | 16.2% | 16.1% | 18.7% | 19.8% | 10.9% | 4.0% |
| Colin Patterson | 32.4% | 23.0% | 18.4% | 13.5% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Arielle Morgan | 17.3% | 21.1% | 18.6% | 16.3% | 14.6% | 9.0% | 3.1% |
| Josh Basseches | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 28.4% | 40.7% |
| Joshua McAuliffe | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 26.2% | 43.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.