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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+6.37vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.10+4.84vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.59+7.57vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.16+2.55vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+1.66vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.98+1.06vs Predicted
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7Florida State University1.69+1.25vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College0.85+3.35vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.39-1.03vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.59-1.63vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.30-2.52vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-0.69vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.67-4.06vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.44-4.47vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.26+0.20vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.50-3.31vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.20-6.75vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.13-4.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.778.5%1st Place
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6.84Jacksonville University2.109.2%1st Place
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10.57Northeastern University1.593.6%1st Place
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6.55University of Pennsylvania2.1610.0%1st Place
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6.66Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.3110.3%1st Place
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7.06Fordham University1.989.1%1st Place
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8.25Florida State University1.696.5%1st Place
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11.35Eckerd College0.853.1%1st Place
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7.97Boston University1.396.5%1st Place
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8.37Old Dominion University1.595.6%1st Place
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8.48Webb Institute1.305.8%1st Place
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11.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.2%1st Place
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8.94University of California at Santa Barbara1.675.1%1st Place
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9.53George Washington University1.444.5%1st Place
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15.2University of Michigan-0.261.1%1st Place
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12.69SUNY Maritime College0.501.8%1st Place
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10.25Connecticut College1.204.7%1st Place
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13.59University of Wisconsin0.131.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Owen Bannasch | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
| Jackson McAliley | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Peter Foley | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 5.7% |
| Noah Robitshek | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 6.2% |
| Henry Boeger | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Jack Hammett | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 17.3% | 42.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 12.5% |
| Skylor Sweet | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| Nigel Yu | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 17.2% | 19.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.