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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.18+3.32vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.38+4.74vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.50+3.40vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.60+1.98vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.68+0.92vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.32+0.88vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.34-0.15vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.56-1.67vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University1.22+1.50vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.34-3.26vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire1.24-0.42vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University1.39-1.65vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.99-1.79vs Predicted
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15Middlebury College0.24-1.34vs Predicted
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16McGill University1.10-5.08vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University-0.40-1.94vs Predicted
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18Wesleyan University-2.12-0.09vs Predicted
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19University of Connecticut-1.14-2.41vs Predicted
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20Sacred Heart University-1.60-2.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.32Brown University3.180.2%1st Place
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6.74Harvard University2.380.1%1st Place
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6.4Connecticut College2.500.1%1st Place
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5.98Boston University2.600.1%1st Place
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5.92Roger Williams University2.680.1%1st Place
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6.88Tufts University2.320.1%1st Place
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6.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.340.1%1st Place
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6.33University of Rhode Island2.560.1%1st Place
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10.5Salve Regina University1.220.0%1st Place
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6.74Northeastern University2.340.1%1st Place
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10.58University of New Hampshire1.240.0%1st Place
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10.35Salve Regina University1.390.0%1st Place
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11.21University of Vermont0.990.0%1st Place
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13.66Middlebury College0.240.0%1st Place
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10.92McGill University1.100.0%1st Place
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15.06Fairfield University-0.400.0%1st Place
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17.91Wesleyan University-2.120.0%1st Place
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16.59University of Connecticut-1.140.0%1st Place
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17.05Sacred Heart University-1.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Steadman | 17.6% | 15.6% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Farrell | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandra Maurillo | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Collin Alexander | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Preston Duclos | 8.4% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Shea | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madelynn Widmeier | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Gibbs | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bayard Lalor | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Elise Gehling | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Gershuny | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Killian | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Milot | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jade Forsberg | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 18.9% | 18.5% | 12.7% | 5.1% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Orsoni-Wiemer | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Owen | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 13.4% | 23.5% | 20.1% | 12.7% | 3.3% |
| Jon Brudnick | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 11.1% | 21.8% | 54.4% |
| Daniel Ghajar | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 12.9% | 25.6% | 27.7% | 14.6% |
| Graham Hughes | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 9.3% | 18.5% | 30.4% | 27.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.