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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+9.89vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.60+7.28vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.61+6.26vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+6.63vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston4.09+1.98vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.49+3.48vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.49+2.54vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.67+0.69vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College3.56+0.17vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+0.24vs Predicted
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11Hampton University3.02+0.61vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University2.38+2.23vs Predicted
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13Yale University4.24-6.69vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University3.29-3.91vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-6.71vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida3.59-6.83vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-9.84vs Predicted
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18Boston College3.35-8.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.89St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.0%1st Place
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9.28Harvard University3.600.0%1st Place
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9.26Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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10.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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6.98College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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9.48Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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9.54George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.69U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.17Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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11.61Hampton University3.020.0%1st Place
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14.23Jacksonville University2.380.0%1st Place
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6.31Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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10.09Georgetown University3.290.0%1st Place
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8.29Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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9.17University of South Florida3.590.0%1st Place
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7.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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9.98Boston College3.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Tara | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 7.6% |
| Nick Sertl | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| Mack Fox | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| John Rolander | 5.6% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% |
| Patrick Snow | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 4.7% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 4.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 11.5% |
| Daniel Lawless | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 37.3% |
| Nicholas Baird | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| AJ Reiter | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% |
| Ty Ingram | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Sean Cornell | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Wade Waddell | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.