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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+5.62vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+9.02vs Predicted
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3Hampton University3.02+8.79vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+5.86vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida3.59+3.99vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+4.78vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.49+2.53vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston4.09-1.06vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-0.74vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.61-0.71vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-3.87vs Predicted
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12George Washington University3.49-2.11vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University2.38+0.77vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.35-4.24vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College3.56-5.82vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy3.67-7.21vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.60-7.78vs Predicted
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18Georgetown University3.29-7.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.62Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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11.02St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.0%1st Place
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11.79Hampton University3.020.0%1st Place
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9.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.0%1st Place
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8.99University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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10.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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9.53Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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6.94College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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8.26Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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9.29Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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7.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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9.89George Washington University3.490.0%1st Place
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13.77Jacksonville University2.380.0%1st Place
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9.76Boston College3.350.0%1st Place
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9.18Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.79U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.22Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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10.2Georgetown University3.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 10.2% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Tara | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.3% |
| Charles Lomax | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% |
| Sean Cornell | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% |
| Mack Fox | 4.2% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% |
| John Rolander | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Ty Ingram | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.8% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% |
| Daniel Lawless | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 31.7% |
| Wade Waddell | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.4% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Patrick Snow | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% |
| AJ Reiter | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.