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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+5.63vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston4.09+5.14vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+7.98vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.61+4.90vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.49+4.46vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+2.34vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.60+2.03vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-1.07vs Predicted
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9George Washington University3.49+0.53vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.29+0.69vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-0.85vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-0.86vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.67-4.42vs Predicted
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14Hampton University3.02-2.85vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College3.56-5.83vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida3.59-6.85vs Predicted
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17Boston College3.35-6.78vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University2.38-4.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.63Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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7.14College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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10.98St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.0%1st Place
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8.9Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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9.46Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.34Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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9.03Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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6.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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9.53George Washington University3.490.0%1st Place
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10.69Georgetown University3.290.0%1st Place
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10.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.0%1st Place
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11.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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8.58U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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11.15Hampton University3.020.0%1st Place
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9.17Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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9.15University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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10.22Boston College3.350.0%1st Place
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13.83Jacksonville University2.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Tara | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| John Rolander | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% |
| Ty Ingram | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 8.6% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| AJ Reiter | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 6.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% |
| Mack Fox | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.5% |
| Patrick Snow | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| Sean Cornell | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% |
| Wade Waddell | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% |
| Daniel Lawless | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 32.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.