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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida3.59+8.18vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.56+7.29vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+4.08vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+6.43vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.49+4.31vs Predicted
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6Yale University4.24+0.31vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+1.16vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.60+0.85vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.85+3.14vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston4.09-2.90vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-1.01vs Predicted
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12Hampton University3.02-0.23vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University2.38+0.68vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.49-4.93vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College3.53-5.87vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-5.31vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.67-8.22vs Predicted
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18Georgetown University3.29-7.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.18University of South Florida3.590.0%1st Place
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9.29Bowdoin College3.560.0%1st Place
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7.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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10.43St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.0%1st Place
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9.31George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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6.31Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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8.16Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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8.85Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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12.14Boston College2.850.0%1st Place
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7.1College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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9.99U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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11.77Hampton University3.020.0%1st Place
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13.68Jacksonville University2.380.0%1st Place
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9.07Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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9.13Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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10.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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8.78U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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10.02Georgetown University3.290.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Cornell | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Tara | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% |
| Nicholas Baird | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ty Ingram | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| Nick Sertl | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% |
| Henry Dumke | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 13.0% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 10.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.3% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 12.7% |
| Daniel Lawless | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 14.9% | 29.4% |
| John Rolander | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% |
| Christopher Williford | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| Mack Fox | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.3% |
| Patrick Snow | 6.3% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| AJ Reiter | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.