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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+6.47vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+4.54vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.98+4.00vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.59+4.12vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University2.10+1.79vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+5.11vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.30+1.31vs Predicted
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8Florida State University1.69-0.08vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.59+1.58vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.44-0.38vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.67-2.34vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.89-1.54vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.16-6.45vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.50-1.47vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.14-5.50vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.26-1.00vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.13-3.37vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College0.85-6.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.3%1st Place
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6.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.3110.0%1st Place
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7.0Fordham University1.988.8%1st Place
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8.12Old Dominion University1.597.1%1st Place
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6.79Jacksonville University2.108.4%1st Place
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11.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.5%1st Place
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8.31Webb Institute1.306.9%1st Place
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7.92Florida State University1.697.5%1st Place
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10.58Northeastern University1.593.7%1st Place
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9.62George Washington University1.444.5%1st Place
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8.66University of California at Santa Barbara1.676.2%1st Place
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10.46Connecticut College0.893.5%1st Place
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6.55University of Pennsylvania2.1610.2%1st Place
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12.53SUNY Maritime College0.502.5%1st Place
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9.5Boston University1.144.3%1st Place
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15.0University of Michigan-0.261.3%1st Place
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13.63University of Wisconsin0.131.7%1st Place
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11.21Eckerd College0.852.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Diogo Silva | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Owen Bannasch | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 5.6% |
| Everett Botwinick | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Peter Foley | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Henry Boeger | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Henry Scholz | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% |
| Jackson McAliley | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 15.3% | 13.1% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Jack Hammett | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 41.8% |
| Nigel Yu | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 17.6% | 19.8% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.