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📊 Prediction Accuracy
85.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.17+1.48vs Predicted
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2McGill University1.39+1.58vs Predicted
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3Queen's University1.64+0.25vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College1.50-0.53vs Predicted
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5McGill University1.31-1.17vs Predicted
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6Amherst College-0.14-0.22vs Predicted
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8Brandeis University-0.10-2.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.48Tufts University2.170.3%1st Place
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3.58McGill University1.390.1%1st Place
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3.25Queen's University1.640.2%1st Place
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3.47Middlebury College1.500.2%1st Place
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3.83McGill University1.310.1%1st Place
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5.78Amherst College-0.140.0%1st Place
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5.62Brandeis University-0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Patterson | 34.8% | 23.6% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Wesley Yland | 13.4% | 17.4% | 17.7% | 19.7% | 16.8% | 11.0% | 4.0% |
| Arielle Morgan | 17.3% | 20.5% | 19.6% | 17.5% | 14.8% | 8.4% | 1.9% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 17.2% | 15.5% | 18.0% | 17.6% | 19.1% | 9.2% | 3.4% |
| Charlotte Skinner | 10.7% | 15.8% | 17.4% | 17.8% | 18.7% | 13.9% | 5.7% |
| Joshua McAuliffe | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 26.9% | 43.6% |
| Josh Basseches | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 28.0% | 40.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.