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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+8.98vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.49+7.56vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston4.09+3.98vs Predicted
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4George Washington University3.49+5.28vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.56+3.95vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.29+4.28vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida3.59+1.90vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+0.04vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.61-0.24vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.60-0.85vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.73-2.54vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.13-0.71vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-6.24vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.67-5.74vs Predicted
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15Hampton University3.02-3.70vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University2.38-2.04vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-6.23vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-7.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.0%1st Place
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9.56Tufts University3.490.0%1st Place
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6.98College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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9.28George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.95Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.28Georgetown University3.290.0%1st Place
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8.9University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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8.04Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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8.76Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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9.15Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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8.46Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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11.29Yale University3.130.0%1st Place
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6.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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8.26U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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11.3Hampton University3.020.0%1st Place
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13.96Jacksonville University2.380.0%1st Place
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10.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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10.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lomax | 4.9% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% |
| John Rolander | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| AJ Reiter | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% |
| Sean Cornell | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Ty Ingram | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% |
| Charles Sinks | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 10.3% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Snow | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.9% |
| Daniel Lawless | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 32.6% |
| Mack Fox | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% |
| Patrick Tara | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.