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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+9.74vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+6.32vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+4.03vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University2.38+9.61vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.56+4.00vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.29+4.28vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.49+2.34vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+1.70vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+1.66vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.61-0.89vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.60-1.96vs Predicted
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12George Washington University3.49-2.21vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.13-2.29vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.73-5.97vs Predicted
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15Hampton University3.02-3.69vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston4.09-9.14vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.67-8.26vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida3.59-9.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.74St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.0%1st Place
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8.32Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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7.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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13.61Jacksonville University2.380.0%1st Place
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9.0Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.28Georgetown University3.290.0%1st Place
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9.34Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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9.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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10.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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9.11Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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9.04Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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9.79George Washington University3.490.0%1st Place
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10.71Yale University3.130.0%1st Place
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8.03Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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11.31Hampton University3.020.0%1st Place
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6.86College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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8.74U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.74University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Tara | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% |
| Ty Ingram | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Daniel Lawless | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 31.7% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% |
| AJ Reiter | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 5.7% |
| John Rolander | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.4% |
| Mack Fox | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| Nick Sertl | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% |
| Charles Sinks | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Snow | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| Sean Cornell | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.