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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.72+6.15vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+8.29vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.92+7.57vs Predicted
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4Hampton University2.26+8.72vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.84+1.40vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.47+1.90vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.72+4.12vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.42+4.28vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.63-1.75vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida2.92+0.60vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-2.65vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-3.29vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.06-3.44vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.19-5.16vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University3.43-6.95vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-5.25vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College3.38-8.53vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.47-5.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.15Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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10.29St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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10.57Bowdoin College2.920.0%1st Place
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12.72Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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6.4College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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7.9Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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11.12George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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12.28Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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7.25U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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10.6University of South Florida2.920.0%1st Place
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8.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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8.71Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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9.56Georgetown University3.060.0%1st Place
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8.84Boston College3.190.1%1st Place
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8.05Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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10.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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8.47Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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12.01U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Kiss | 8.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% |
| William Hawk | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.2% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 20.9% |
| Jack Cusick | 11.5% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Scott Barbano | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.9% |
| Jackson Wagner | 3.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 17.1% |
| Gary Prieto | 7.3% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Baird | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% |
| Hector Guzman | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| Trevor Long | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% |
| Maxwell Simmons | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 7.2% |
| Robert Floyd | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| Paul Didham | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 13.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.