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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+9.35vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.92+8.67vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.06+7.12vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.25+4.85vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University3.43+3.12vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+2.45vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.38+1.34vs Predicted
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8Boston College3.48-0.13vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida2.92+1.44vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-1.41vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.84-4.32vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.57+0.22vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.63-5.75vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.47-6.31vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.47-2.78vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.20-6.72vs Predicted
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17Hampton University2.26-3.76vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-7.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.35St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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10.67Bowdoin College2.920.0%1st Place
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10.12Georgetown University3.060.0%1st Place
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8.85Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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8.12Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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8.34Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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7.87Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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10.44University of South Florida2.920.0%1st Place
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8.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.68College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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12.22George Washington University2.570.0%1st Place
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7.25U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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7.69Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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12.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.470.0%1st Place
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9.28Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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13.24Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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10.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Lutz | 4.3% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% |
| William Hawk | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| Trevor Long | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Robert Floyd | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Harry Koeppel | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Andrew Baird | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.2% |
| Hector Guzman | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Jack Cusick | 10.0% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Rhodes Garner | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 14.9% |
| Gary Prieto | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Scott Barbano | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Paul Didham | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 15.4% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 3.1% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 25.4% |
| Max Neubelt | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.