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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+4.53vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.26+5.50vs Predicted
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3George Washington University0.70+7.02vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University1.70+2.65vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.07+4.16vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-0.09vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-1.24vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.07+2.31vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+2.47vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.00-0.65vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.54-3.15vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College1.17-3.70vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-6.98vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute-0.08-1.11vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin-1.32+1.14vs Predicted
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16Florida State University0.37-4.72vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.52-3.10vs Predicted
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18Hope College-0.11-5.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.53University of Pennsylvania1.7712.8%1st Place
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7.5Old Dominion University1.267.0%1st Place
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10.02George Washington University0.704.5%1st Place
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6.65Jacksonville University1.709.6%1st Place
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9.16Northeastern University1.075.1%1st Place
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5.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1311.3%1st Place
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5.76University of California at Santa Barbara1.4410.5%1st Place
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10.31Boston University1.073.8%1st Place
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11.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.292.1%1st Place
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9.35Connecticut College1.004.0%1st Place
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7.85Fordham University1.545.9%1st Place
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8.3Eckerd College1.175.6%1st Place
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6.02Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.5810.1%1st Place
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12.89Webb Institute-0.081.4%1st Place
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16.14University of Wisconsin-1.320.2%1st Place
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11.28Florida State University0.373.0%1st Place
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13.9SUNY Maritime College-0.521.5%1st Place
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12.95Hope College-0.111.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 12.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Blake Goodwin | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Patrick Igoe | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| JJ Klempen | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Porter Bell | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% |
| William Hurd | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Vieira | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Robert Ulmer | 10.1% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 14.0% | 15.7% | 8.2% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 54.8% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 2.6% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 20.8% | 16.4% |
| Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.