← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania1.77+4.57vs Predicted
-
2Northeastern University1.07+7.14vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+3.00vs Predicted
-
4Eckerd College1.17+4.30vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+6.50vs Predicted
-
6Old Dominion University1.26+1.54vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-1.21vs Predicted
-
8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-1.79vs Predicted
-
9George Washington University0.70+0.93vs Predicted
-
10Webb Institute-0.08+2.84vs Predicted
-
11Jacksonville University1.70-4.39vs Predicted
-
12Connecticut College1.00-2.73vs Predicted
-
13Boston University1.07-2.65vs Predicted
-
14Fordham University1.54-6.15vs Predicted
-
15Florida State University0.37-3.48vs Predicted
-
16Hope College-0.11-3.02vs Predicted
-
17SUNY Maritime College-0.13-3.54vs Predicted
-
18University of Wisconsin-1.32-1.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.57University of Pennsylvania1.7713.3%1st Place
-
9.14Northeastern University1.074.8%1st Place
-
6.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1310.3%1st Place
-
8.3Eckerd College1.175.3%1st Place
-
11.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.292.4%1st Place
-
7.54Old Dominion University1.266.7%1st Place
-
5.79University of California at Santa Barbara1.4412.0%1st Place
-
6.21Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.5810.0%1st Place
-
9.93George Washington University0.703.9%1st Place
-
12.84Webb Institute-0.082.0%1st Place
-
6.61Jacksonville University1.708.6%1st Place
-
9.27Connecticut College1.005.3%1st Place
-
10.35Boston University1.074.0%1st Place
-
7.85Fordham University1.545.7%1st Place
-
11.52Florida State University0.372.5%1st Place
-
12.98Hope College-0.111.4%1st Place
-
13.46SUNY Maritime College-0.131.4%1st Place
-
16.16University of Wisconsin-1.320.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 13.3% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| JJ Klempen | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Vieira | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 3.5% |
| Blake Goodwin | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 12.0% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.5% |
| Marc Leyk | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 15.5% | 9.4% |
| Patrick Igoe | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Hurd | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Porter Bell | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 4.2% |
| Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 16.2% | 9.8% |
| Luke Barker | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 17.9% | 11.8% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 13.2% | 56.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.