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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+5.88vs Predicted
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2Boston College4.89+4.60vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston4.34+6.09vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University4.78+3.06vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.56+7.30vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.76+5.64vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.63+5.41vs Predicted
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8University of Miami3.99+2.29vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida3.49+3.54vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University5.19-4.49vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy4.34-2.02vs Predicted
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12Washington College3.65+0.20vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-1.62vs Predicted
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14Brown University4.49-5.79vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-4.07vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45-7.54vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College4.15-7.45vs Predicted
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18Texas A&M University at Galveston3.21-4.15vs Predicted
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19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-6.16vs Predicted
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20Queen's University0.79-0.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.88St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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6.6Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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9.09College of Charleston4.340.1%1st Place
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7.06Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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12.3Tufts University3.560.0%1st Place
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11.64Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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12.41University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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10.29University of Miami3.990.0%1st Place
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12.54University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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5.51Georgetown University5.190.1%1st Place
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8.98U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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12.2Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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11.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.0%1st Place
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8.21Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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10.93Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.0%1st Place
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8.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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9.55SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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13.85Texas A&M University at Galveston3.210.0%1st Place
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12.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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19.28Queen's University0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Sinks | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jackson Benvenutti | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Cy Thompson | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 1.1% |
| Stephanie Roble | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 1.2% |
| Halsey Richartz | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 1.8% |
| Nicholas Voss | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 0.6% |
| Will Stocke | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 13.2% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Vann | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Michael Whitford | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 1.6% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 1.1% |
| Fred Strammer | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sommer | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 0.3% |
| David Thompson | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Shawn Murray | 5.4% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Jasmine Baloch | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 19.1% | 3.5% |
| Gary Herring | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 1.8% |
| Graham Hutchings | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 84.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.