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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley-0.01+4.20vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara0.83+1.21vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara0.72+0.44vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47+1.42vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.80+1.17vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-1.21+1.31vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.44-1.78vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.54-2.45vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.24-4.20vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.01-3.23vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-1.58-2.80vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.91-2.81vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-2.62-2.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.2University of California at Berkeley-0.010.1%1st Place
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3.21University of California at Santa Barbara0.830.2%1st Place
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3.44University of California at Santa Barbara0.720.2%1st Place
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6.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.470.1%1st Place
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7.17University of California at Santa Cruz-0.800.0%1st Place
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8.31University of California at San Diego-1.210.0%1st Place
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6.22University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.1%1st Place
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6.55University of California at San Diego-0.540.1%1st Place
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5.8University of California at Los Angeles-0.240.1%1st Place
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7.77University of California at San Diego-1.010.0%1st Place
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9.2University of California at Davis-1.580.0%1st Place
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10.19University of California at Los Angeles-1.910.0%1st Place
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11.53University of California at Davis-2.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Hogan | 10.0% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Maxwell McKinney | 24.9% | 21.7% | 16.7% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Jawetz | 22.0% | 19.2% | 16.9% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Liam Chaffey | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Gabrielle Lange | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% |
| Warren Ko | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 4.7% |
| Ben Gerber | 7.7% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Jason Barr | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Hallie Muller | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Cameron Khorsandi | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 7.9% | 4.6% |
| Bradyn O'Connor | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 15.6% | 17.0% | 11.3% |
| Kristopher Wong | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 13.5% | 25.1% | 22.7% |
| Adityavardhan Vijay Shah | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 19.1% | 51.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.