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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.61+1.54vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara0.83+1.91vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara0.72+1.23vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-0.01+2.19vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-0.24+1.93vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47+1.55vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles-0.44+0.09vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-1.21+1.53vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.54-2.24vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-2.10+0.78vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.80-3.50vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.01-3.96vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.91-5.34vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.91-3.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.54University of Southern California1.610.4%1st Place
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3.91University of California at Santa Barbara0.830.2%1st Place
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4.23University of California at Santa Barbara0.720.1%1st Place
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6.19University of California at Berkeley-0.010.1%1st Place
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6.93University of California at Los Angeles-0.240.0%1st Place
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7.55Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.470.0%1st Place
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7.09University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.1%1st Place
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9.53University of California at San Diego-1.210.0%1st Place
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7.76University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
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11.78University of California at Davis-2.100.0%1st Place
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8.5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.800.0%1st Place
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9.04University of California at San Diego-1.010.0%1st Place
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8.66University of California at Davis-0.910.0%1st Place
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11.28University of California at Los Angeles-1.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Comerford | 36.0% | 23.6% | 16.1% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell McKinney | 16.7% | 17.3% | 15.4% | 15.1% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sean Jawetz | 13.2% | 16.6% | 15.4% | 14.8% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Hogan | 5.2% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Hallie Muller | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Liam Chaffey | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 1.7% |
| Ben Gerber | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Warren Ko | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 11.1% |
| Jason Barr | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| JJ Zhang | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 17.3% | 39.5% |
| Gabrielle Lange | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 4.1% |
| Cameron Khorsandi | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 7.0% |
| Burak Kocal | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 9.3% | 4.4% |
| Kristopher Wong | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 12.0% | 23.9% | 27.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.