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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+4.70vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.70+4.49vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College1.17+5.48vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+1.97vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.26+2.58vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+0.01vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-1.21vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.07+1.17vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+2.53vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.07+0.36vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.54-3.28vs Predicted
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12Florida State University0.37-0.60vs Predicted
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13Hope College-0.11-0.14vs Predicted
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14George Washington University0.70-3.90vs Predicted
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15-0.08-2.27vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.00-6.74vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.52-3.24vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin-1.32-1.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.7University of Pennsylvania1.7711.4%1st Place
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6.49Jacksonville University1.7010.1%1st Place
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8.48Eckerd College1.175.0%1st Place
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5.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.5811.9%1st Place
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7.58Old Dominion University1.267.1%1st Place
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6.01University of California at Santa Barbara1.4410.8%1st Place
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5.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1310.5%1st Place
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9.17Northeastern University1.075.5%1st Place
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11.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.2%1st Place
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10.36Boston University1.073.0%1st Place
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7.72Fordham University1.546.8%1st Place
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11.4Florida State University0.371.9%1st Place
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12.86Hope College-0.111.8%1st Place
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10.1George Washington University0.703.8%1st Place
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12.73-0.081.8%1st Place
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9.26Connecticut College1.003.9%1st Place
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13.76SUNY Maritime College-0.521.2%1st Place
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16.1University of Wisconsin-1.320.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 11.4% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Igoe | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Vieira | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Robert Ulmer | 11.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Blake Goodwin | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 3.1% |
| Porter Bell | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 1.5% |
| Lucas Thress | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 3.5% |
| Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 17.1% | 9.3% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 1.3% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 8.2% |
| William Hurd | 3.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 20.6% | 14.1% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 56.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.