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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+4.62vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+3.89vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University1.70+3.62vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.07+5.09vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.54+2.71vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College1.17+2.42vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-0.86vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.07+2.53vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.70+1.12vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan0.22+1.94vs Predicted
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11Florida State University0.37+0.44vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.00-2.49vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.57vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute-0.08-1.06vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.26-7.63vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.52-1.92vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin-1.32-0.86vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-11.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.62University of Pennsylvania1.7712.3%1st Place
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5.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1310.1%1st Place
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6.62Jacksonville University1.708.4%1st Place
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9.09Northeastern University1.074.2%1st Place
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7.71Fordham University1.547.6%1st Place
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8.42Eckerd College1.175.7%1st Place
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6.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.5810.1%1st Place
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10.53Boston University1.073.9%1st Place
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10.12George Washington University0.704.2%1st Place
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11.94University of Michigan0.221.9%1st Place
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11.44Florida State University0.372.5%1st Place
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9.51Connecticut College1.004.7%1st Place
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11.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.292.6%1st Place
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12.94Webb Institute-0.081.8%1st Place
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7.37Old Dominion University1.267.8%1st Place
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14.08SUNY Maritime College-0.521.0%1st Place
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16.14University of Wisconsin-1.320.7%1st Place
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6.02University of California at Santa Barbara1.4410.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 12.3% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| JJ Klempen | 10.1% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Lucas Thress | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Vieira | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Robert Ulmer | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Porter Bell | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Alden Gort | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 5.0% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 3.9% |
| William Hurd | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 15.8% | 9.3% |
| Blake Goodwin | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 23.0% | 17.8% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 55.6% |
| Ted McDonough | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.