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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+4.32vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.70+4.32vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+2.54vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+1.80vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.07+4.74vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.54+1.56vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.70+2.51vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-2.44vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College1.17-1.14vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan0.22+1.45vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.07-2.43vs Predicted
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12Florida State University0.37-1.19vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.26-5.82vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-3.21vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute-0.08-2.61vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin-1.32-0.69vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.52-3.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.32University of Pennsylvania1.7712.7%1st Place
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6.32Jacksonville University1.708.5%1st Place
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5.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1311.1%1st Place
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5.8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.5810.8%1st Place
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9.74Boston University1.074.5%1st Place
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7.56Fordham University1.547.1%1st Place
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9.51George Washington University0.703.5%1st Place
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5.56University of California at Santa Barbara1.4412.2%1st Place
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7.86Eckerd College1.176.9%1st Place
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11.45University of Michigan0.221.6%1st Place
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8.57Northeastern University1.075.8%1st Place
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10.81Florida State University0.372.2%1st Place
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7.18Old Dominion University1.267.8%1st Place
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10.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.292.5%1st Place
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12.39Webb Institute-0.081.1%1st Place
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15.31University of Wisconsin-1.320.4%1st Place
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13.29SUNY Maritime College-0.521.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 12.7% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| JJ Klempen | 11.1% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Porter Bell | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 2.2% |
| Lucas Thress | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 0.9% |
| Ted McDonough | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Vieira | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Alden Gort | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 5.3% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Blake Goodwin | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 3.0% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 14.8% | 16.8% | 10.3% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 15.1% | 55.8% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 22.8% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.