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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+4.67vs Predicted
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2Florida State University0.37+8.71vs Predicted
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3George Washington University0.70+6.36vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.22+3.70vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.54+2.43vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.07+2.61vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan0.22+4.30vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+2.85vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.07+0.90vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.70-3.57vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College1.17-2.95vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.13+0.67vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute-0.08-0.75vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-8.13vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.77-9.55vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin-1.32-0.73vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-11.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1311.8%1st Place
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10.71Florida State University0.372.9%1st Place
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9.36George Washington University0.704.4%1st Place
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7.7Old Dominion University1.226.0%1st Place
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7.43Fordham University1.546.9%1st Place
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8.61Northeastern University1.074.9%1st Place
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11.3University of Michigan0.222.1%1st Place
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10.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.292.4%1st Place
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9.9Boston University1.073.5%1st Place
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6.43Jacksonville University1.708.8%1st Place
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8.05Eckerd College1.175.2%1st Place
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12.67SUNY Maritime College-0.131.7%1st Place
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12.25Webb Institute-0.081.7%1st Place
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5.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.5812.1%1st Place
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5.45University of Pennsylvania1.7712.8%1st Place
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15.27University of Wisconsin-1.320.7%1st Place
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5.5University of California at Santa Barbara1.4412.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 11.8% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 4.3% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Pierce Brindley | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Alden Gort | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 5.9% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 3.8% |
| Porter Bell | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Patrick Igoe | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Vieira | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Luke Barker | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 20.2% | 13.0% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 17.2% | 10.1% |
| Robert Ulmer | 12.1% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 12.8% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 14.8% | 57.3% |
| Ted McDonough | 12.5% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.