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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+4.66vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.70+4.19vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.22+4.80vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+1.88vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College1.17+2.93vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.07+2.65vs Predicted
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7Florida State University0.37+3.85vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.54-0.64vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.07+0.75vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+0.92vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.70-1.53vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.77-6.64vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.13-0.34vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-8.37vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.22-3.54vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute-0.08-3.74vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin-1.32-1.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1310.9%1st Place
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6.19Jacksonville University1.7010.1%1st Place
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7.8Old Dominion University1.226.7%1st Place
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5.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.5810.0%1st Place
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7.93Eckerd College1.176.2%1st Place
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8.65Northeastern University1.075.4%1st Place
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10.85Florida State University0.373.0%1st Place
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7.36Fordham University1.546.9%1st Place
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9.75Boston University1.073.9%1st Place
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10.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.292.4%1st Place
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9.47George Washington University0.704.7%1st Place
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5.36University of Pennsylvania1.7712.8%1st Place
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12.66SUNY Maritime College-0.131.7%1st Place
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5.63University of California at Santa Barbara1.4410.3%1st Place
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11.46University of Michigan0.222.1%1st Place
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12.26Webb Institute-0.082.5%1st Place
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15.17University of Wisconsin-1.320.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 10.9% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Igoe | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Pierce Brindley | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Robert Ulmer | 10.0% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Vieira | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 3.9% |
| Lucas Thress | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Porter Bell | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 2.5% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 4.2% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Sofia Segalla | 12.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Barker | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 18.2% | 13.5% |
| Ted McDonough | 10.3% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alden Gort | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 4.8% |
| Marc Leyk | 2.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 17.3% | 10.4% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 12.3% | 57.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.