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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+4.82vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+3.88vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.22+4.49vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.07+5.89vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.07+3.75vs Predicted
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6Florida State University0.37+4.74vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute-0.08+5.22vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.54-0.39vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.77-3.55vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.70-0.40vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College1.17-3.11vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.70-5.73vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-7.51vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.13-1.46vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-4.15vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.22-4.70vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin-1.32-1.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1310.4%1st Place
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5.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.5811.7%1st Place
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7.49Old Dominion University1.226.6%1st Place
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9.89Boston University1.073.5%1st Place
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8.75Northeastern University1.075.2%1st Place
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10.74Florida State University0.372.6%1st Place
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12.22Webb Institute-0.082.1%1st Place
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7.61Fordham University1.546.4%1st Place
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5.45University of Pennsylvania1.7711.2%1st Place
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9.6George Washington University0.704.0%1st Place
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7.89Eckerd College1.175.7%1st Place
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6.27Jacksonville University1.7010.4%1st Place
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5.49University of California at Santa Barbara1.4412.4%1st Place
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12.54SUNY Maritime College-0.132.1%1st Place
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10.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.292.7%1st Place
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11.3University of Michigan0.222.4%1st Place
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15.23University of Wisconsin-1.320.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Robert Ulmer | 11.7% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Pierce Brindley | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Porter Bell | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 3.5% |
| Marc Leyk | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 17.5% | 10.3% |
| Lucas Thress | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Sofia Segalla | 11.2% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Jordan Vieira | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Igoe | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 12.4% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Barker | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 18.4% | 12.7% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 4.2% |
| Alden Gort | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 5.5% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 57.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.