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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.6%
Within 2 Positions
5.0
Avg Position Diff
29
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Eckerd College1.82+11.81vs Predicted
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2Santa Barbara City College2.29+8.54vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.81+1.19vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.14+7.39vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+1.77vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.72+7.70vs Predicted
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7Fordham University3.16-0.40vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93+9.13vs Predicted
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9Boston University2.10+2.43vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.54-0.72vs Predicted
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11Oregon State University1.40+4.20vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.37-1.40vs Predicted
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13Oregon State University1.40+2.20vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+0.37vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.19+6.04vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston2.91-8.46vs Predicted
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17California Poly Maritime Academy1.81-4.17vs Predicted
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18Santa Clara University0.21+3.18vs Predicted
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19Jacksonville University2.44-9.18vs Predicted
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20University of Pennsylvania2.43-10.07vs Predicted
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21Tufts University2.23-10.16vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego0.43-1.81vs Predicted
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23Western Washington University0.28-1.92vs Predicted
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24University of California at Los Angeles0.92-6.02vs Predicted
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25University of Southern California0.28-3.85vs Predicted
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26Northwestern University0.23-4.82vs Predicted
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27University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-4.73vs Predicted
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28University of California at Irvine-0.09-5.58vs Predicted
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29Texas A&M University-0.17-6.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.81Eckerd College1.820.0%1st Place
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10.54Santa Barbara City College2.290.0%1st Place
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4.19Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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11.39U. S. Naval Academy2.140.0%1st Place
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6.77University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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13.7University of Southern California1.720.0%1st Place
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6.6Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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17.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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11.43Boston University2.100.0%1st Place
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9.28Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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15.2Oregon State University1.400.0%1st Place
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10.6Roger Williams University2.370.0%1st Place
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15.2Oregon State University1.400.0%1st Place
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14.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.550.0%1st Place
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21.04University of California at Berkeley0.190.0%1st Place
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7.54College of Charleston2.910.1%1st Place
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12.83California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.0%1st Place
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21.18Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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9.82Jacksonville University2.440.0%1st Place
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9.93University of Pennsylvania2.430.0%1st Place
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10.84Tufts University2.230.0%1st Place
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20.19University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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21.08Western Washington University0.280.0%1st Place
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17.98University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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21.15University of Southern California0.280.0%1st Place
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21.18Northwestern University0.230.0%1st Place
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22.27University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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22.42University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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22.54Texas A&M University-0.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Peirson | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Silas Barton | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 21.5% | 15.4% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jessica McJones | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Sabourin | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick (Drew) Ehlers | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Neal | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick (Drew) Ehlers | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Siepert | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Whitney Ziesing | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shannon | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lenox Butcher | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Pleskus | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabrielle Rigby | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 0.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Lopez | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Susan Riley | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 17.2% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 16.6% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Bristow | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 17.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.