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📊 Prediction Accuracy
13.8%
Within 2 Positions
5.3
Avg Position Diff
29
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.91+6.47vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.44+7.68vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College1.82+9.84vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+2.96vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+9.31vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.54+3.49vs Predicted
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7Oregon State University1.40+8.33vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.10+3.07vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California1.72+4.39vs Predicted
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10Santa Barbara City College2.29+0.48vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.14+0.23vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.16-5.05vs Predicted
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13Santa Clara University0.21+8.12vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.37-4.15vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.43-5.20vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University3.81-11.82vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.23-6.00vs Predicted
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18Western Washington University0.28+2.86vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego0.43+1.25vs Predicted
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20University of Southern California0.28+0.99vs Predicted
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21Oregon State University1.40-5.67vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles0.92-4.29vs Predicted
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23California Poly Maritime Academy1.81-9.68vs Predicted
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24Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-6.13vs Predicted
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25University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-2.25vs Predicted
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26University of California at Irvine-0.09-3.45vs Predicted
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27University of California at Berkeley0.19-6.02vs Predicted
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28Northwestern University0.23-6.97vs Predicted
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29Texas A&M University-0.17-6.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.47College of Charleston2.910.1%1st Place
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9.68Jacksonville University2.440.0%1st Place
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12.84Eckerd College1.820.0%1st Place
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6.96University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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14.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.550.0%1st Place
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9.49Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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15.33Oregon State University1.400.0%1st Place
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11.07Boston University2.100.0%1st Place
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13.39University of Southern California1.720.0%1st Place
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10.48Santa Barbara City College2.290.0%1st Place
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11.23U. S. Naval Academy2.140.0%1st Place
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6.95Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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21.12Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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9.85Roger Williams University2.370.1%1st Place
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9.8University of Pennsylvania2.430.1%1st Place
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4.18Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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11.0Tufts University2.230.0%1st Place
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20.86Western Washington University0.280.0%1st Place
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20.25University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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20.99University of Southern California0.280.0%1st Place
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15.33Oregon State University1.400.0%1st Place
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17.71University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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13.32California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.0%1st Place
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17.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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22.75University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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22.55University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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20.98University of California at Berkeley0.190.0%1st Place
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21.03Northwestern University0.230.0%1st Place
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22.53Texas A&M University-0.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shannon | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Peirson | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 8.7% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Siepert | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick (Drew) Ehlers | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Sabourin | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Silas Barton | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jessica McJones | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Neal | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lenox Butcher | 5.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 18.8% | 17.5% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Pleskus | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabrielle Rigby | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Lopez | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick (Drew) Ehlers | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 14.8% | 18.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 16.2% | 0.0% |
| Whitney Ziesing | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| Susan Riley | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Bristow | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.