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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
29
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.81+3.22vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.37+8.09vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.91+4.44vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University2.44+5.89vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.54+4.22vs Predicted
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6Santa Barbara City College2.29+4.74vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-0.16vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College1.82+4.48vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+5.34vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.44-0.25vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.10+0.47vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.23-0.63vs Predicted
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13Fordham University3.16-6.44vs Predicted
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14California Poly Maritime Academy1.81-1.18vs Predicted
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15Oregon State University1.40+0.32vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy2.14-4.88vs Predicted
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17Santa Clara University0.21+4.23vs Predicted
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18Oregon State University1.40-2.68vs Predicted
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19University of Southern California0.28+1.93vs Predicted
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20University of Southern California1.72-6.42vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles0.92-3.17vs Predicted
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22Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-4.37vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego0.43-2.60vs Predicted
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24University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-1.40vs Predicted
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25University of California at Berkeley0.19-3.44vs Predicted
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26Texas A&M University-0.17-3.21vs Predicted
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27Northwestern University0.23-6.16vs Predicted
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28Western Washington University0.28-7.27vs Predicted
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29University of California at Irvine-0.09-6.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.22Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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10.09Roger Williams University2.370.0%1st Place
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7.44College of Charleston2.910.1%1st Place
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9.89Jacksonville University2.440.0%1st Place
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9.22Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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10.74Santa Barbara City College2.290.0%1st Place
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6.84University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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12.48Eckerd College1.820.0%1st Place
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14.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.550.0%1st Place
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9.75University of Pennsylvania2.440.0%1st Place
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11.47Boston University2.100.0%1st Place
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11.37Tufts University2.230.0%1st Place
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6.56Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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12.82California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.0%1st Place
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15.32Oregon State University1.400.0%1st Place
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11.12U. S. Naval Academy2.140.0%1st Place
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21.23Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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15.32Oregon State University1.400.0%1st Place
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20.93University of Southern California0.280.0%1st Place
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13.58University of Southern California1.720.0%1st Place
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17.83University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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17.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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20.4University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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22.6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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21.56University of California at Berkeley0.190.0%1st Place
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22.79Texas A&M University-0.170.0%1st Place
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20.84Northwestern University0.230.0%1st Place
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20.73Western Washington University0.280.0%1st Place
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22.19University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Segerblom | 20.0% | 18.0% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Neal | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shannon | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Silas Barton | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Peirson | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Siepert | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ava Esquier | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Sabourin | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Pleskus | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick (Drew) Ehlers | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jessica McJones | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| Patrick (Drew) Ehlers | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Lopez | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Whitney Ziesing | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Bristow | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 17.8% | 0.0% |
| Susan Riley | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Gabrielle Rigby | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.