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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.28+9.47vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.30+3.83vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.73+4.16vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.18+2.16vs Predicted
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5University of Miami2.32+6.76vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.40+4.06vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.38+2.59vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.73+0.67vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.17vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.38+1.26vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.78-0.45vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.38-2.19vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.40-3.95vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-4.52vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.20-3.93vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston2.49-5.99vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.22-6.63vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-7.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.47Tulane University2.283.5%1st Place
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5.83Stanford University3.3011.3%1st Place
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7.16Yale University2.739.7%1st Place
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6.16Harvard University3.1812.2%1st Place
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11.76University of Miami2.323.0%1st Place
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10.06Roger Williams University2.404.0%1st Place
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9.59Dartmouth College2.384.7%1st Place
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8.67Brown University2.736.3%1st Place
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9.17U. S. Naval Academy2.605.1%1st Place
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11.26Bowdoin College2.383.0%1st Place
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10.55University of Rhode Island2.784.2%1st Place
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9.81Cornell University2.385.3%1st Place
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9.05Georgetown University2.405.8%1st Place
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9.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.484.9%1st Place
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11.07Boston College2.203.8%1st Place
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10.01College of Charleston2.495.1%1st Place
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10.37Tufts University2.224.0%1st Place
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10.52St. Mary's College of Maryland2.573.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holthus | 3.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Jack Egan | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.2% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 16.6% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% |
| William Michels | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.2% |
| Guthrie Braun | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% |
| Thomas Hall | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% |
| Bridget Green | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.1% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.