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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.14+2.71vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.89+2.06vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.93+3.54vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.72+0.68vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.28-1.46vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara0.13+2.75vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.74-2.62vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine0.08+0.68vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.43-1.15vs Predicted
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10Western Washington University-0.17-0.44vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.81-0.06vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands-1.21-0.30vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California0.28-4.84vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.21-2.30vs Predicted
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15University of Victoria-1.69-2.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.71University of Hawaii2.140.2%1st Place
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4.06University of Hawaii1.890.2%1st Place
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6.54University of Washington0.930.1%1st Place
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4.68University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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3.54University of Hawaii2.280.2%1st Place
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8.75University of California at Santa Barbara0.130.0%1st Place
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4.38University of Hawaii1.740.1%1st Place
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8.68University of California at Irvine0.080.0%1st Place
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7.85University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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9.56Western Washington University-0.170.0%1st Place
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10.94University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
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11.7California State University Channel Islands-1.210.0%1st Place
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8.16University of Southern California0.280.0%1st Place
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11.7California State University Channel Islands-1.210.0%1st Place
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12.43University of Victoria-1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pacholski | 19.2% | 18.4% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mathew Butler | 16.2% | 15.8% | 13.6% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Potter | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 10.6% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 18.4% | 20.3% | 17.1% | 14.4% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Christensen | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 14.6% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 15.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Tagatac | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 15.2% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Lena Captain | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 14.3% | 15.5% | 10.7% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 12.7% | 19.5% | 20.1% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Winter | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 15.9% | 25.7% | 25.8% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Lopez | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Winter | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 15.9% | 25.7% | 25.8% | 0.0% |
| Gillian Craig | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 20.4% | 47.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.