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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
5.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.38+8.61vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.73+6.80vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.28+7.41vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.49+6.01vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.78+5.65vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.15vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.32+5.03vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.38+1.53vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.38+2.21vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.40-0.84vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.40-0.89vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.30-6.26vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-3.30vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.20-2.92vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.18-8.61vs Predicted
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16Yale University2.73-8.95vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-6.74vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.22-7.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.61Dartmouth College2.383.5%1st Place
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8.8Brown University2.736.9%1st Place
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10.41Tulane University2.284.2%1st Place
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10.01College of Charleston2.495.0%1st Place
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10.65University of Rhode Island2.783.8%1st Place
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9.15U. S. Naval Academy2.605.5%1st Place
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12.03University of Miami2.322.7%1st Place
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9.53Cornell University2.384.6%1st Place
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11.21Bowdoin College2.383.2%1st Place
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9.16Georgetown University2.406.2%1st Place
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10.11Roger Williams University2.404.4%1st Place
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5.74Stanford University3.3013.1%1st Place
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9.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.484.2%1st Place
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11.08Boston College2.203.9%1st Place
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6.39Harvard University3.1810.4%1st Place
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7.05Yale University2.739.7%1st Place
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10.26St. Mary's College of Maryland2.574.7%1st Place
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10.13Tufts University2.224.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Kelly Holthus | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| Atlee Kohl | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 15.3% |
| Bridget Green | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 11.9% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 13.1% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% |
| Justin Callahan | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Jack Egan | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.