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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+5.37vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.40+7.19vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+7.52vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.38+5.45vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.28+5.17vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+3.67vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.40+3.03vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.20+3.41vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.22+1.28vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-0.96vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.32+0.88vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.73-5.12vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.30-7.24vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-3.57vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.73-6.16vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston2.49-5.86vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.38-5.72vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College2.38-8.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.37Harvard University3.1811.9%1st Place
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9.19Georgetown University2.406.4%1st Place
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10.52University of Rhode Island2.784.2%1st Place
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9.45Cornell University2.385.1%1st Place
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10.17Tulane University2.284.0%1st Place
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9.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.3%1st Place
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10.03Roger Williams University2.404.0%1st Place
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11.41Boston College2.203.1%1st Place
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10.28Tufts University2.224.0%1st Place
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9.04U. S. Naval Academy2.605.0%1st Place
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11.88University of Miami2.322.9%1st Place
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6.88Yale University2.739.8%1st Place
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5.76Stanford University3.3012.2%1st Place
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10.43St. Mary's College of Maryland2.573.5%1st Place
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8.84Brown University2.735.2%1st Place
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10.14College of Charleston2.494.5%1st Place
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11.28Bowdoin College2.383.9%1st Place
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9.64Dartmouth College2.384.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 11.9% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% |
| Bridget Green | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% |
| Kelly Holthus | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 15.6% |
| Jack Egan | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.2% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% |
| Guthrie Braun | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| Noah Zittrer | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 11.6% |
| William Michels | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.