← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+8.53vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University3.18+4.24vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University2.38+6.75vs Predicted
-
4Bowdoin College2.38+7.38vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.46vs Predicted
-
6Dartmouth College2.38+3.61vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.00vs Predicted
-
8University of Miami2.32+3.98vs Predicted
-
9Tulane University2.28+1.50vs Predicted
-
10Tufts University2.22+0.04vs Predicted
-
11Boston College2.20-0.01vs Predicted
-
12Georgetown University2.40-3.06vs Predicted
-
13Roger Williams University2.40-2.99vs Predicted
-
14Stanford University3.30-8.24vs Predicted
-
15University of Rhode Island2.78-4.28vs Predicted
-
16Yale University2.73-8.74vs Predicted
-
17Brown University2.73-8.16vs Predicted
-
18College of Charleston2.49-8.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.5%1st Place
-
6.24Harvard University3.1811.2%1st Place
-
9.75Cornell University2.384.6%1st Place
-
11.38Bowdoin College2.383.2%1st Place
-
10.46St. Mary's College of Maryland2.574.2%1st Place
-
9.61Dartmouth College2.385.1%1st Place
-
9.0U. S. Naval Academy2.606.0%1st Place
-
11.98University of Miami2.322.5%1st Place
-
10.5Tulane University2.283.7%1st Place
-
10.04Tufts University2.224.3%1st Place
-
10.99Boston College2.203.5%1st Place
-
8.94Georgetown University2.406.2%1st Place
-
10.01Roger Williams University2.404.2%1st Place
-
5.76Stanford University3.3013.1%1st Place
-
10.72University of Rhode Island2.783.9%1st Place
-
7.26Yale University2.737.8%1st Place
-
8.84Brown University2.735.9%1st Place
-
9.99College of Charleston2.495.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.5% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| Thomas Hall | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 11.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% |
| William Michels | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 16.4% |
| Kelly Holthus | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 13.1% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% |
| Jack Egan | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Guthrie Braun | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.