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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.38+10.04vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.73+5.09vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+7.49vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.18+2.16vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.24vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.30-0.18vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.38+2.79vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.28+2.37vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.32+2.93vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.40-0.84vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.40-0.85vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-2.38vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.22-2.70vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.20-2.98vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston2.49-4.77vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College2.38-6.59vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-6.71vs Predicted
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18Brown University2.73-9.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.04Bowdoin College2.383.1%1st Place
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7.09Yale University2.738.6%1st Place
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10.49University of Rhode Island2.785.2%1st Place
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6.16Harvard University3.1811.5%1st Place
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9.24U. S. Naval Academy2.605.5%1st Place
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5.82Stanford University3.3012.0%1st Place
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9.79Cornell University2.384.1%1st Place
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10.37Tulane University2.284.5%1st Place
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11.93University of Miami2.322.5%1st Place
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9.16Georgetown University2.405.1%1st Place
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10.15Roger Williams University2.404.8%1st Place
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9.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.5%1st Place
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10.3Tufts University2.224.7%1st Place
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11.02Boston College2.203.6%1st Place
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10.23College of Charleston2.494.2%1st Place
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9.41Dartmouth College2.385.1%1st Place
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10.29St. Mary's College of Maryland2.574.6%1st Place
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8.89Brown University2.735.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 11.1% |
| Jack Egan | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.5% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Green | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% |
| Kelly Holthus | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 15.9% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.4% |
| Noah Zittrer | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% |
| William Michels | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.