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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.28+9.38vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.30+3.90vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.22+7.06vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.38+5.56vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.38+4.77vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.15vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.32+4.87vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.60+1.21vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.49+1.11vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.73-1.28vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.18-4.64vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.73-4.85vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.78-2.32vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-4.21vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.20-3.87vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.40-6.01vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University2.40-8.05vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.38-6.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.38Tulane University2.284.2%1st Place
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5.9Stanford University3.3010.8%1st Place
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10.06Tufts University2.225.0%1st Place
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9.56Dartmouth College2.384.3%1st Place
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9.77Cornell University2.384.5%1st Place
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10.15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.574.3%1st Place
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11.87University of Miami2.322.8%1st Place
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9.21U. S. Naval Academy2.605.2%1st Place
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10.11College of Charleston2.494.8%1st Place
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8.72Brown University2.736.3%1st Place
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6.36Harvard University3.1810.4%1st Place
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7.15Yale University2.739.8%1st Place
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10.68University of Rhode Island2.783.8%1st Place
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9.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.484.7%1st Place
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11.13Boston College2.203.8%1st Place
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9.99Roger Williams University2.405.0%1st Place
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8.95Georgetown University2.406.8%1st Place
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11.22Bowdoin College2.383.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holthus | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 10.8% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% |
| William Michels | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% |
| Bridget Green | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 15.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% |
| Guthrie Braun | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| Justin Callahan | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jack Egan | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% |
| Thomas Hall | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 11.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.