← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Bowdoin College2.06+7.82vs Predicted
-
2Yale University2.85+4.79vs Predicted
-
3College of Charleston2.38+5.80vs Predicted
-
4Dartmouth College2.34+4.53vs Predicted
-
5University of Miami1.93+7.04vs Predicted
-
6Boston College2.58+2.54vs Predicted
-
7Georgetown University2.20+1.95vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+0.92vs Predicted
-
9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.79+2.31vs Predicted
-
10Stanford University3.15-4.38vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University1.79-0.31vs Predicted
-
12Roger Williams University1.84+0.97vs Predicted
-
13Harvard University2.48-5.23vs Predicted
-
14University of Rhode Island1.42-0.49vs Predicted
-
15Tulane University2.68-7.99vs Predicted
-
16Brown University2.37-6.36vs Predicted
-
17U. S. Naval Academy2.28-8.32vs Predicted
-
18Tufts University1.51-5.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.82Bowdoin College2.065.7%1st Place
-
6.79Yale University2.8510.3%1st Place
-
8.8College of Charleston2.385.5%1st Place
-
8.53Dartmouth College2.346.1%1st Place
-
12.04University of Miami1.932.2%1st Place
-
8.54Boston College2.586.1%1st Place
-
8.95Georgetown University2.206.2%1st Place
-
8.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.324.7%1st Place
-
11.31St. Mary's College of Maryland1.793.1%1st Place
-
5.62Stanford University3.1512.7%1st Place
-
10.69Cornell University1.793.4%1st Place
-
12.97Roger Williams University1.842.1%1st Place
-
7.77Harvard University2.486.7%1st Place
-
13.51University of Rhode Island1.421.7%1st Place
-
7.01Tulane University2.689.9%1st Place
-
9.64Brown University2.375.1%1st Place
-
8.68U. S. Naval Academy2.285.9%1st Place
-
12.42Tufts University1.512.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Stephan Baker | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Chase Decker | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.8% |
| Peter Busch | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| Diego Escobar | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Landon Cormie | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 12.7% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 17.4% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Henry Lee | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 25.1% |
| Christian Ebbin | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Blake Behrens | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Clark Morris | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 15.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.