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📊 Prediction Accuracy

56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
William Curtiss 15.7% 17.2% 13.9% 12.7% 12.4% 8.7% 9.0% 4.9% 2.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Darby Reddaway 3.3% 4.8% 5.2% 6.2% 5.7% 9.6% 9.8% 7.4% 10.0% 11.3% 11.5% 8.1% 4.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Geoffrey Nelson 28.1% 22.8% 16.6% 13.5% 8.5% 5.3% 2.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
David Beaudry 6.0% 7.2% 7.6% 9.0% 9.5% 10.3% 10.7% 11.3% 9.1% 9.7% 4.7% 3.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Edwards 0.9% 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% 2.6% 3.6% 3.6% 5.9% 6.8% 8.3% 11.3% 14.9% 19.0% 12.3% 5.3% 0.9%
Kelly Stukbauer 6.1% 5.8% 8.1% 9.7% 9.4% 10.3% 10.1% 10.1% 10.1% 7.9% 6.4% 3.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
David Hein 8.4% 7.3% 9.0% 10.9% 11.1% 10.5% 9.1% 10.9% 8.1% 6.9% 5.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Elizabeth O'Connor 6.4% 8.0% 8.0% 9.0% 9.8% 9.7% 11.4% 11.3% 8.7% 7.6% 5.0% 3.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Max Thompson 15.8% 14.3% 14.5% 12.3% 12.9% 10.1% 7.4% 4.9% 4.4% 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Teagan Walsh 2.3% 2.6% 3.2% 3.5% 3.9% 5.3% 5.6% 7.2% 10.2% 10.7% 13.6% 14.0% 11.3% 5.0% 1.4% 0.2%
Rafael Melendez 3.1% 3.3% 4.8% 4.4% 5.7% 6.4% 7.3% 8.0% 10.4% 11.6% 12.0% 12.5% 6.4% 3.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Jenn Casey 2.5% 4.1% 4.4% 5.0% 5.5% 6.3% 8.3% 10.2% 9.4% 11.0% 11.5% 11.7% 6.2% 2.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Ashley Thess 1.1% 0.7% 1.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.8% 3.2% 3.8% 5.6% 5.6% 8.2% 12.8% 22.4% 18.1% 10.7% 2.2%
Taylor Wood 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 1.3% 1.8% 2.7% 4.5% 6.7% 11.5% 24.7% 26.1% 16.8%
Clare Sweeney 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 1.3% 2.4% 5.1% 10.7% 23.0% 53.1%
Erica Trotter 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 1.3% 2.3% 3.1% 4.4% 8.0% 19.5% 30.9% 26.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.