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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+5.26vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+3.31vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.40+2.56vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.90+3.48vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+8.15vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.22+1.04vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.98+1.97vs Predicted
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8San Diego State University0.19+3.16vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.27-1.48vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.74-1.01vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-1.40vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.34+0.87vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University0.10-1.68vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.70+0.47vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis0.07-4.72vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-0.39-2.08vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-0.52-3.49vs Predicted
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18University of Hawaii2.41-14.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.26Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.458.6%1st Place
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5.31California Poly Maritime Academy1.9211.9%1st Place
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5.56University of Southern California1.4011.9%1st Place
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7.48University of Southern California0.905.9%1st Place
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13.15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.261.2%1st Place
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7.04University of California at Santa Barbara1.227.0%1st Place
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8.97University of California at Berkeley0.985.2%1st Place
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11.16San Diego State University0.192.1%1st Place
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7.52Northwestern University1.277.2%1st Place
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8.99University of California at Berkeley0.744.5%1st Place
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9.6University of California at Santa Cruz0.862.9%1st Place
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12.87University of California at Los Angeles-0.341.5%1st Place
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11.32Texas A&M University0.102.5%1st Place
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14.47University of California at San Diego-0.701.1%1st Place
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10.28University of California at Davis0.072.9%1st Place
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13.92Arizona State University-0.390.9%1st Place
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13.51Arizona State University-0.520.9%1st Place
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3.61University of Hawaii2.4121.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Henderson | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 11.9% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 11.9% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Florence Duff | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 12.9% |
| Thomas Erisman | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Jake Weinstein | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Olsen | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| Rigel Mummers | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 10.4% |
| Ryan Ingram | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 17.2% | 27.2% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 16.8% | 20.1% |
| Andrew Down | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 15.0% | 17.1% |
| Erik Anderson | 21.6% | 19.8% | 17.1% | 12.8% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.