← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+2.76vs Predicted
-
2San Diego State University1.47+1.90vs Predicted
-
3California Poly Maritime Academy0.81+2.85vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Cruz1.45-0.02vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29+4.50vs Predicted
-
6Arizona State University-1.09+7.24vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Berkeley-0.99+6.08vs Predicted
-
8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-1.39vs Predicted
-
9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.80+3.01vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.27-0.52vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Berkeley-0.84+1.01vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Davis-1.98+5.07vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51-2.32vs Predicted
-
14California State University Monterey Bay-1.32+0.22vs Predicted
-
15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94-1.52vs Predicted
-
16University of California at San Diego-2.05-0.73vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-2.88vs Predicted
-
18Santa Clara University-1.38-3.38vs Predicted
-
19California State University Monterey Bay-2.10-1.48vs Predicted
-
20San Diego State University-0.86-7.75vs Predicted
-
21San Diego State University-1.19-7.24vs Predicted
-
22University of California at Davis-1.84-5.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.76California Poly Maritime Academy1.6219.9%1st Place
-
3.9San Diego State University1.4718.1%1st Place
-
5.85California Poly Maritime Academy0.819.6%1st Place
-
3.98University of California at Santa Cruz1.4518.5%1st Place
-
9.5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.293.9%1st Place
-
13.24Arizona State University-1.091.1%1st Place
-
13.08University of California at Berkeley-0.991.9%1st Place
-
6.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.356.7%1st Place
-
12.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.801.8%1st Place
-
9.48University of California at Santa Cruz-0.273.5%1st Place
-
12.01University of California at Berkeley-0.841.8%1st Place
-
17.07University of California at Davis-1.980.7%1st Place
-
10.68University of California at Santa Barbara-0.512.7%1st Place
-
14.22California State University Monterey Bay-1.321.2%1st Place
-
13.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.941.4%1st Place
-
15.27University of California at San Diego-2.050.9%1st Place
-
14.12University of California at Los Angeles-1.090.7%1st Place
-
14.62Santa Clara University-1.381.1%1st Place
-
17.52California State University Monterey Bay-2.100.5%1st Place
-
12.25San Diego State University-0.862.1%1st Place
-
13.76San Diego State University-1.191.4%1st Place
-
16.6University of California at Davis-1.840.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Myers | 19.9% | 18.1% | 15.7% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 18.1% | 17.2% | 16.2% | 14.1% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Perez | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buster Baylis | 18.5% | 18.9% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Elliott | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Camden Wacha | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Micaela Jorcino | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Emilia McNabb | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Bianca Weber | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Stephanie Ng | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 19.2% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Liam Williams | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.1% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.8% |
| Philip Yang | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 13.8% | 26.0% |
| Marley Daniel | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Sophia Cerretti | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| Nathan Baer | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 16.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.