← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+2.90vs Predicted
-
2San Diego State University1.47+1.84vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Cruz1.45+0.99vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29+5.56vs Predicted
-
5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.80+7.01vs Predicted
-
6California Poly Maritime Academy0.81-0.18vs Predicted
-
7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-0.33vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Berkeley-0.84+4.07vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.27+0.55vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51+0.61vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Los Angeles-1.09+3.19vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Berkeley-0.99+0.92vs Predicted
-
13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+0.33vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Davis-1.84+2.55vs Predicted
-
15California State University Monterey Bay-1.32-0.69vs Predicted
-
16Santa Clara University-1.38-1.34vs Predicted
-
17San Diego State University-0.86-4.78vs Predicted
-
18University of California at San Diego-2.05-2.84vs Predicted
-
19San Diego State University-1.19-5.33vs Predicted
-
20Arizona State University-1.09-6.55vs Predicted
-
21California State University Monterey Bay-2.10-3.56vs Predicted
-
22University of California at Davis-1.98-4.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.9California Poly Maritime Academy1.6218.4%1st Place
-
3.84San Diego State University1.4718.8%1st Place
-
3.99University of California at Santa Cruz1.4517.8%1st Place
-
9.56University of California at Santa Cruz-0.293.4%1st Place
-
12.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.802.1%1st Place
-
5.82California Poly Maritime Academy0.819.8%1st Place
-
6.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.356.7%1st Place
-
12.07University of California at Berkeley-0.841.8%1st Place
-
9.55University of California at Santa Cruz-0.273.5%1st Place
-
10.61University of California at Santa Barbara-0.513.5%1st Place
-
14.19University of California at Los Angeles-1.091.2%1st Place
-
12.92University of California at Berkeley-0.991.5%1st Place
-
13.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.941.6%1st Place
-
16.55University of California at Davis-1.840.7%1st Place
-
14.31California State University Monterey Bay-1.320.9%1st Place
-
14.66Santa Clara University-1.381.1%1st Place
-
12.22San Diego State University-0.862.3%1st Place
-
15.16University of California at San Diego-2.051.2%1st Place
-
13.67San Diego State University-1.191.5%1st Place
-
13.45Arizona State University-1.091.5%1st Place
-
17.44California State University Monterey Bay-2.100.7%1st Place
-
17.08University of California at Davis-1.980.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Myers | 18.4% | 17.2% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 18.8% | 19.2% | 15.2% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buster Baylis | 17.8% | 16.7% | 14.8% | 14.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Elliott | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Micaela Jorcino | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Nicolai Perez | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bianca Weber | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Emilia McNabb | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Liam Williams | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% |
| Nathan Baer | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 17.2% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% |
| Marley Daniel | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Maria Gunness | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% |
| Sophia Cerretti | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% |
| Camden Wacha | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Philip Yang | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 23.1% |
| Stephanie Ng | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 20.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.