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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.22+6.11vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+4.43vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.40+2.57vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.90+3.30vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+0.10vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University0.19+5.25vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University1.27+0.36vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii2.41-4.56vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.74-0.09vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-0.12vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis0.07-0.69vs Predicted
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12Texas A&M University0.10-0.76vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+0.30vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley0.98-4.99vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.70-0.64vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-0.34-3.29vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-0.52-3.32vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-0.39-3.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.11University of California at Santa Barbara1.226.6%1st Place
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6.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.458.6%1st Place
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5.57University of Southern California1.4011.0%1st Place
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7.3University of Southern California0.906.9%1st Place
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5.1California Poly Maritime Academy1.9213.5%1st Place
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11.25San Diego State University0.192.9%1st Place
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7.36Northwestern University1.275.5%1st Place
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3.44University of Hawaii2.4124.3%1st Place
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8.91University of California at Berkeley0.743.8%1st Place
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9.88University of California at Santa Cruz0.862.7%1st Place
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10.31University of California at Davis0.072.5%1st Place
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11.24Texas A&M University0.101.7%1st Place
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13.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.260.8%1st Place
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9.01University of California at Berkeley0.984.5%1st Place
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14.36University of California at San Diego-0.700.9%1st Place
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12.71University of California at Los Angeles-0.341.6%1st Place
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13.68Arizona State University-0.521.4%1st Place
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14.03Arizona State University-0.391.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Erisman | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 11.0% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 13.5% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 4.0% |
| Jake Weinstein | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Erik Anderson | 24.3% | 19.4% | 16.4% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Olsen | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Ryan Ingram | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 3.7% |
| Florence Duff | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 13.9% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 17.2% | 23.8% |
| Rigel Mummers | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 10.7% |
| Andrew Down | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 16.8% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 22.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.