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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+2.69vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University1.47+1.86vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz1.45+0.97vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35+2.47vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy0.81+0.66vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.27+3.30vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.99+5.82vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-1.09+4.93vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+4.11vs Predicted
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10Santa Clara University-1.38+4.34vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.84+0.87vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29-2.74vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.09+0.78vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-0.86-1.87vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51-4.41vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-2.05-0.76vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay-2.10+0.19vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-1.19-4.34vs Predicted
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19California State University Monterey Bay-1.32-5.09vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis-1.84-3.72vs Predicted
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21University of California at Davis-1.98-4.20vs Predicted
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22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.83-5.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.69California Poly Maritime Academy1.6220.0%1st Place
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3.86San Diego State University1.4718.9%1st Place
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3.97University of California at Santa Cruz1.4517.6%1st Place
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6.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.356.9%1st Place
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5.66California Poly Maritime Academy0.819.9%1st Place
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9.3University of California at Santa Cruz-0.274.3%1st Place
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12.82University of California at Berkeley-0.991.8%1st Place
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12.93Arizona State University-1.092.1%1st Place
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13.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.941.6%1st Place
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14.34Santa Clara University-1.381.1%1st Place
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11.87University of California at Berkeley-0.841.9%1st Place
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9.26University of California at Santa Cruz-0.293.2%1st Place
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13.78University of California at Los Angeles-1.091.5%1st Place
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12.13San Diego State University-0.861.4%1st Place
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10.59University of California at Santa Barbara-0.512.5%1st Place
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15.24University of California at San Diego-2.050.8%1st Place
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17.19California State University Monterey Bay-2.100.7%1st Place
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13.66San Diego State University-1.191.1%1st Place
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13.91California State University Monterey Bay-1.320.9%1st Place
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16.28University of California at Davis-1.840.6%1st Place
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16.8University of California at Davis-1.980.5%1st Place
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16.14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.830.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Myers | 20.0% | 18.4% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 18.9% | 18.4% | 14.1% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buster Baylis | 17.6% | 16.4% | 16.7% | 13.8% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Perez | 9.9% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emilia McNabb | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Camden Wacha | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.0% |
| Bianca Weber | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Lucas Elliott | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Liam Williams | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.4% |
| Marley Daniel | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 7.9% |
| Philip Yang | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 21.4% |
| Sophia Cerretti | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.0% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Nathan Baer | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 15.5% |
| Stephanie Ng | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 17.9% |
| Paul Munsell | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.